Squire Report, Vol 12: Extensions
10 August 2018
Settling into the dog days of summer after the blitz of Free Agency, it's time for the Knights to focus on re-signing some of their own players...
THE FLOWER WILL CONTINUE TO BLOOM IN THE DESERT
Coming off what was arguably his best season, goalie Marc-Andre Fleury said he wanted to retire in Las Vegas, and his new three-year extension should help that happen. After setting personal bests during the regular season in both Goals Against Average (2.24) and Save Percentage (.927), "The Flower" continued his excellent play into the spring and was a key factor (THE key factor?) in the team's Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Final. Locking him up for a few more years seemed like the obvious move, and though the $7 million cap hit could cause some problems down the line, I feel it was worth it to keep the face of the Knights franchise in net for the foreseeable future.
But should we worry about his age and not living up to the contract? I'd argue no, as goalies often play well into their late thirties - Fleury turns 34 in November (this will be the final year of his current deal), which means he'll be 37-going-on-38 when the new contract expires, still a very serviceable age by goalie standards. One example would be Martin Brodeur - holder of the NHL's records for most wins, shutouts and games played by a goaltender - who didn't see his statistics take a significant dip until he was already 38 years old.
Furthermore, FIVE of the last 12 Vezina Trophy winners were older than Fleury is now, and he just finished 5th in the voting for the award last year (the highest of his career). A good comparison would be Florida netminder Roberto Luongo, whose career seems to follow a very similar path. When Luongo turned 34, he had amassed nearly the same amount of regular season minutes played throughout his career (42,885) as Fleury's current number (42,433) - at the age of 36, Luongo would finish 4th in the Vezina voting.
Fleury's extension will also provide time for the Knights to see what they have in Malcolm Subban and Oscar Dansk, as they try to determine if either one could potentially replace him. With a stout defensive system playing in front of him, I have no doubt we'll continue to see Fleury perform at the highest level and carry this team forward in the coming years.
TWO SIGNINGS TO SOLIDIFY THE BOTTOM SIX
Much of the Golden Knights' success this season was due to the strong play of the team's fourth line: a rotating cast of wingers - supported by center Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - fit perfectly into coach Gerard Gallant's system and caused fits for the opposition all year. With Ryan Reaves re-signed on July 1, GM George McPhee shifted his focus and handed out extensions to William Carrier (two years) and Tomas Nosek (one year).
Although he missed more than half of the season due to injury, Carrier was a tremendous physical force during his time in the lineup. A wrecking ball with a fondness for contact, he used his terrific speed to create relentless forechecking pressure - and while that doesn't necessarily translate to the score sheet (he tallied just one goal and two assists in 37 games), it certainly plays an important part in the makeup of this team. He can slide in and out of the lineup, and is young enough at age 23 to still reach some untapped potential as a solid depth option for the Knights.
After a very solid run during his first full season in the NHL, Tomas Nosek is looking to break out in a major way. After originally filing for arbitration, he settled on a one-year contract to bet on himself and prove his worth - he was a solid penalty-killer and role player on the fourth line, but the departure of James Neal and David Perron should create chances for Nosek to line up with more offensive-minded skill players. His regular season output (15 points in 67 games) was decent, but Nosek turned a corner in the playoffs: healthy scratched after only scoring one point in the first eight games, he charged back into the lineup with four goals in the last two rounds, including three in the Cup Final. Here's hoping that could be a sign of things to come in the fall, as I would love to see more moments similar to when Nosek scored the first goal in the home opener:
WILD BILL AVOIDS ARBITRATION WITH A ONE-YEAR DEAL
All eyes in the hockey world were on the drama surrounding William Karlsson and his pending arbitration hearing, set for August 4. A depth center with only 18 goals in 183 career games before joining the Knights, "Wild Bill" went crazy with an astounding 43 goals and 78 points once he was moved to the top line in Vegas. Would he get a long-term deal based on the success of one season, or would he take a shorter deal with the chance to really cash in after another great year? Negotiations seemingly went nowhere and we appeared headed toward the ugliness of arbitration, before the two sides came to an agreement just hours before the scheduled hearing: Karlsson would receive $5.25 million for one year.
It was a risky proposition for both sides - if Karlsson has another stellar season, the Knights will be forced to pay him significant money on his next contract, whereas if he struggles or underperforms, he could be costing himself some money in the long run. Signing a one-year deal also means that Karlsson will continue to be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer if he remains unsigned, though he can negotiate an extension beginning on January 1.When it's all said and done, I like the deal from the perspective of both the player AND the team: players tend to thrive in contract years, which should lead to more success for the team on the ice; meanwhile, the Vegas cap situation could be cleared up a bit by next offseason if the team needs to trade away any overpriced veterans (I'm looking at you, Cody Eakin!) to help fit in Karlsson's next deal.
LAST MONTH'S PREDICTIONS
I. WILLIAM KARLSSON WILL HAVE AN ARBITRATION HEARING
Oh, for the love of...it was hours away from happening. Hours!!!!
II. GEORGE McPHEE WILL MAKE A TRADE
I guess the threat of the Karlsson hearing and the wish to extend his own players got in the way of negotiating with other GM's, or at least that's what I'm going to tell myself to explain away McPhee's resistance to make a move. It's the offseason, so hockey fans are always hoping to see some "hot stove" action involving multiple trades, although those tend to occur closer to the Entry Draft and the opening of Free Agency on July 1. I guess it was just wishful thinking on my part that McPhee would buck the trend, but it was not to be.
III. NATE SCHMIDT WILL RECEIVE A LONG-TERM CONTRACT EXTENSION
Again, I blame William Karlsson for distracting George McPhee and preventing this much-needed deal for my favorite Golden Knight. I dread going into the season with Schmidt unsigned, as I feel he is poised to flourish once again and be the best all-around contributor to the Vegas defense - and playing on an expiring contract might tempt him to test the waters as an unrestricted free agent next summer. Quite simply, we CANNOT let this happen!
NEXT MONTH'S PREDICTIONS
I. NATE SCHMIDT WILL RECEIVE A LONG-TERM CONTRACT EXTENSION
Come on - what else does McPhee need to do right now?!?! (I mean, besides give Shea Theodore a new contract)
II. SHEA THEODORE WILL SIGN A TWO-YEAR BRIDGE DEAL
29 points in 61 regular season games. 10 points in 20 playoff games. We couldn't really ask much more from a 22-year-old getting his first taste of full-time NHL duty, so I'm curious to see how Theodore's next contract will shape up. It's very common to see GM's around the league lock up their young talent to longer contracts to keep the cap hit low, but I think McPhee will convince him to take a two-year deal. The team will have even more cap space in 2020, allowing Theodore to truly hit the jackpot if he continues with his steady development and enters his prime as a potential top-pair defenseman in this league.
III. THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WILL GO UNDEFEATED IN THE VEGAS ROOKIE FACEOFF
I am SO excited that Vegas will be hosting a six-team tournament featuring prospects from several Western Conference opponents! While I'm a little disappointed that I won't be able to see another series of rookie games against the Los Angeles Kings like I did last year, I think it's a great opportunity for the Knights organization to show off their bright future, with the likes of Cody Glass and Erik Brannstrom leading the way. There is already talk that it could be a recurring event, which would be fantastic when it make its way to southern California.
And with that, I bid thee farewell...
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